Arbitrage Betting Sites

Arbitrage betting works on handicaps as well. The difference is 6 points. If Team1 wins by at least 6 points and more, both of your bets will win. While you will hardly find arbitrage situations for handicaps on the same betting site, you may very well detect some good arbitrage opportunities for totals by one bookmaker. In the world of betting this arbitrage opportunity opens up with odds differences offered by the bookies and betting exchanges. If you can back bet (the equivalent of buy) high odds at a bookie and lay bet (the equivalent of sell) the same event outcome at lower odds at an exchange, you can potentially make a profit, as long as the difference. Arbitrage betting requires no luck, statistics or knowledge of the sport you’re betting on. But despite this, thousands of people are using the arbitrage betting method to guarantee a profit on sports bets day in, day out. It sounds way too good to be true! But it’s incredibly easy to get started and the opportunity is there, ready for the.

Arbitrage betting, also known as 'arbing', 'surebets' or 'value bets', is a relatively simple and extremely effective way of making a guaranteed profit by covering all outcomes of an event. For example, in a tennis match there are two possible outcomes. Either Player 1 wins or Player 2 wins. With the right conditions (the odds being favourable), it is possible to make a profit regardless of the result by placing bets on both players.

In this article we'll be taking a look at how it's possible to lock in a profit from these opportunities, how to find them and how to stay under the radar of the bookies who generally aren't too keen on customers placing arbs.

Arbitrage betting isn't something that you should get into if you have no experience of betting. The majority of people who get into arbing have some experience in either trading or matched betting. Despite being a relatively simple concept, it is possible to lose money if you place bets with the wrong stakes or at the wrong odds. Arbing is a logical progression from matched betting as if you've been matched betting for a while, you will understand how odds and betting exchanges work. You may have also been 'gubbed' by certain bookmakers when matched betting which means you are ineligible to qualify for free bets and other promotions and are looking for another way to make a profit from betting. If so, arbing may be the perfect solution for you since it doesn't require the use of any free bets at all.

Sports Arbitrage, also known as Sure bets or Arb Betting. Imagine you could cover all outcomes in a match and make a profit no matter who wins. This is what sure bets are, also known as sports arbitrage, arb betting or arbitrage trading. With sure bets, you cover all the outcomes of a match by placing bets with different bookmakers.
How do I discover arbitrage betting opportunities? In the phone example above, we mentioned two options: doing manual research or using comparison sites. Now, when it comes to arbing tools, we’re speaking about technology that allows us to do the latter — compare prices from across the market without having to spend hours rattling through.

Arbitrage betting works by covering all outcomes of an event so that one of your bets wins whatever the result is. There are two ways you can cover all outcomes:

Back an outcome with a bookmaker and lay it on a betting exchange
Back each outcome with different bookmakers

If you've done matched betting before then you'll be familiar with back and lay bets. It's possible to lock in a profit regardless of the result with this method when the back odds with a bookmaker are greater than the lay odds on the betting exchange.

The example below shows us that 'Spotify' is 5.0 to win the 16:00 Longchamp with Racebets and the lay odds for the same horse on Betfair Exchange are 3.0.

By simply backing this horse at Racebets and laying it on Betfair Exchange, we're able to make a profit whether it wins or not.

To ensure that we make the same profit regardless of the result, we can use an arbing calculator or matched betting calculator to determine the ideal stakes.

As you can see, using a £100 stake with the bookmaker for 'Spotify' to win, if we lay the horse with a stake of £169.49, we will make a profit of £61.02 whether the horse wins or doesn't.

Another arbing method is to only use bookmakers. This can be slightly more time consuming depending on the number of possible outcomes but can be equally profitable.

To keep things simple, let's use a tennis match as an example which has only two possible outcomes.

Below is an example of a profitable arbing opportunity given the odds on each player from two different bookmakers.

player 2
1.6
Bookmaker b Odds	3.0

If we were to back each player with a single bookmaker, we would end up with a loss. However, if we choose the highest odds from each bookmaker for each player, we are able to lock in a profit.

We need to use an arbing calculator to determine the ideal stakes so that we return the same profit regardless of which player wins the match.

The calculator shows us that using a combined stake (the total stake across the two bets) of £100, if we place a £65 bet on Player 1 to with with Bookmaker A and a £35 bet on Player 2 to win with Bookmaker B, we will make a £4 profit if Player 1 wins and a £5 profit if Player 2 wins.

You can adjust the stakes slightly so that you return exactly the same profit whichever player wins but in this example we have rounded our stakes as recommended by the calculator so that our bets look more natural to a bookmaker. Placing a bet with a stake of £34.67 may raise suspicions that you are arbing and increase the chances of your account being stake limited by the bookmaker at some point.

Finding arbs manually is an extremely difficult process. There may be hundreds if not thousands of sporting events taking place at any one time and tens or hundreds of thousands of markets throughout those events, all with their odds changing frequently. Therefore, the use of some automated software is essential if you want to make sport arbitrage betting profitable based on your time spent doing it. Placing arbs is straight forward and quick but it's the finding them that takes time if done manually.

There are various pieces of arbing software which you can use to find profitable arbs. The costs for these services vary as do the quality of the software but if you choose the right one, the profit you make should more than cover your subscription fee.

If you are mainly searching for back & lay arbing opportunities then a matched betting odds matcher from sites such as ProfitSquad or OddsMonkey may suffice. However, if you want to find the most profitable arbs and arbs where betting exchanges are not required, you should opt for dedicated arbitrage bet finder software. There are many of these about, some of which we have tested ourselves.

Some sport arbitrage betting software which we recommend are:

There are a few things to be aware of when arbing which will minimise the risk of losing money and ensure you're able to return a profit on a long-term basis.

Every now and again you'll come across huge arbs where the odds at one bookmaker are a lot higher than at others. It can be tempting to use these bets to lock in a large amount of profit but be wary of bookmakers miss-pricing bets. It's not uncommon for bookmakers to occasionally make an error when pricing bets and he majority, if not all, will have clauses in their terms and conditions which allow them to void bets which are priced incorrectly due to human error. If you wager on these miss-priced bets and either lay or bet on other outcomes with another bookmaker, you could end up with a loss should your voided bet win.

Use your common sense when determining whether or not the odds are correct. If an arb seems too good to be true, it usually is.

This warning goes for any type of betting whether you are having a punt, matched betting or arbitrage betting. Placing bets with incorrect stakes can cost you money so it is always best to double check your calculations before placing any bets. An arbing calculator will help you determine the correct stakes but it is also useful to understand how stakes are calculated so that you are able to spot obvious errors before it's too late.

It's no secret that bookmakers do not like customers arbing. Arbitrage betting takes advantage of favourable odds at bookmakers and so by placing arbs, you are taking value away from the bookmaker.

Arbing can return high profits on a monthly basis and so to continue to make a profit from arbitrage betting in the long-term, you need to preserve your bookmaker accounts in any way that you can.

The following tips may help you to stay under the bookies radar and mask the fact that you are arbing.

Arbs are available across any sport and market and so it's likely that you'll come across a number of profitable arbs which are on obscure sports which the average punter may not usually bet on.

For example, you may find an arb from which you can make a quick £20 on by covering all outcomes on a Water Polo match in Iceland. However, would you usually bet on Water Polo? Does this bet look natural in the eyes of the bookmaker? If not, then you're at an increase chance of having your account reviewed which could lead to you being stake restricted.

Although we'd recommend staying away from obscure sports and markets, it can be a good idea to look for arbs on sports other than the likes of football or tennis. Lots of arbers jump on these types of arbs as there are usually quite a lot of them about and as there are only 2-3 outcomes, they are very quick and easy to place. Other sports such as boxing and golf are still very popular with punters but less so with arbers. Therefore, your bets are less likely to raise suspicion and you should be able to preserve your accounts for longer.

If you find a profitable arb then it becomes more profitable the more you increase your stakes. However, placing bets dramatically higher than your average stake size with a bookmaker is likely to raise suspicion. Think about the size of your past bets and increase them at a gradual rate rather than jumping from £50 bets to £1,000 bets. By doing so you're a lot more likely to stay under the bookies radar.

Arbitrage Betting Sites App

Adjusting your bet size depending on the sport and market is also worth considering. If you're average stake on the match result of football matches is £200 then it is unlikely that you would place a £200 bet on a correct score market as these bets usually attract much lower stakes.

Having accounts at multiple bookmakers gives you more options when arbing. Many smaller bookmakers tend to copy the odds from larger bookmakers and so there are plenty of arbing opportunities to take advantage of.

Also, if you get stake restricted or gubbed with a smaller bookmaker you probably won't be as bothered, whereas if you lose one of your main accounts then you could be missing out on betting promotions and offers over time.

does your betting profile look like that of a regular punter?

Overall, you want the bookmakers to think that you are an average punter and not a bet-savvy arber. Take a step back and look at your bet history. Is it full of bets on unusual sports or markets? If so, you may want to think about diluting some of those bets with regular bets so that if a bookmaker does review your account, they're less likely to think that you are only placing bets to take advantage of their odds.

Mug betting is a term which you will be familiar with if you have done matched betting and it involves placing bets with no intention of making a profit. You can still lay these bets and should only make a small loss on each one. By doing so, you should be able to preserve your accounts for a lot longer and continue to make a profit from arbing despite taking a small hit from mug bets.

Betting arbitrage ('miraclebets', 'surebets', sports arbitrage) is an example of arbitrage arising on betting markets due to either bookmakers' differing opinions on event outcomes or errors. When conditions allow, by placing one bet per each outcome with different betting companies, the bettor can make a profit regardless of the outcome.^[1] Mathematically, arbitrage occurs when there are a set of odds, which represent all mutually exclusive outcomes that cover all state space possibilities (i.e. all outcomes) of an event, whose implied probabilities add up to less than 1.^[2] In the bettors' slang an arbitrage is often referred to as an arb; people who use arbitrage are called arbers.^[3]

Background[edit]

Arbitrage betting involves relatively large sums of money, given that 98% of arbitrage opportunities return less than 1.2%.^[4] The practice is usually detected quickly by bookmakers, who typically hold an unfavorable view of it,^[5] and this can result in half of an arbitrage bet being canceled. Arbitrage betting is almost always insufficiently profitable due to detection, unreliable betting websites, limiting of stakes, hackers, and scammers that use high percentage arbitrages to trick bettors into providing security credentials.^{[citation needed]}

Bookmakers generally disapprove of betting arbitrage, and restrict or close the accounts of those who they suspect of engaging in arbitrage betting.^[5]^{[citation needed]} Although arbitrage betting has existed since the beginnings of bookmaking, the rise of the Internet, odds-comparison websites and betting exchanges have made the practice easier to perform. On the other hand, these changes also made it easier for bookmakers to keep their odds in line with the market, because arbitrage bettors are basically acting as market makers.

In Britain, a practice has developed in which highly experienced 'key men' employ others to place bets on their behalf, so as to avoid detection and increase accessibility to retail bookmakers and allow the financiers or key arbitragers to stay at a computer to keep track of market movement.

Arbitrage is a fast-paced process and its successful performance requires much time, experience, dedication and discipline, and especially liquidity.

Theory[edit]

There are a number of potential arbitrage deals. Below is an explanation of some of them including formulas and risks associated with them. The table below introduces a number of variables that will be used to formalise the arbitrage models.

Variable	Explanation
${displaystyle s_{1}}$	Stake in outcome 1
${displaystyle s_{2}}$	Stake in outcome 2
${displaystyle o_{1}}$	Odds for outcome 1
${displaystyle o_{2}}$	Odds for outcome 2
${displaystyle r_{1}}$	Return if outcome 1 occurs
${displaystyle r_{2}}$	Return if outcome 2 occurs

Using bookmakers[edit]

This type of arbitrage takes advantage of different odds offered by different bookmakers. For an example of an event with only two possible outcomes (e.g., a tennis match in which either Federer wins or Henman wins), the two bookmakers have different ideas of who has the best chances of winning. They offer the following fixed-odds gambling on the outcomes of the event in both fractional and decimal format:

Fractional odds:

Bookmaker 1	Bookmaker2
Outcome 1	1/4	43/100
Outcome 2	29/10	37/20

Decimal odds:

Bookmaker 1	Bookmaker2
Outcome 1	1.25	1.43
Outcome 2	3.9	2.85

The bookmaker's return rate is ${displaystyle 1-(1.25*3.9)/(1.25+3.9)=5.34%}$ , which is the amount the bookmaker earns on offering bets at some event. Bookmaker 1 will in this example expect to earn 5.34% on bets on the tennis game. For an individual bookmaker, the sum of the inverse of all outcomes of an event will always be greater than 1. ${displaystyle 1.25^{-1}+3.9^{-1}=1.056}$ and ${displaystyle 1.43^{-1}+2.85^{-1}=1.051}$

Inverse of decimal odds:

Bookmaker 1	Bookmaker2
Outcome 1	${displaystyle 1.25^{-1}=0.8}$	${displaystyle 1.43^{-1}=0.699}$
Outcome 2	${displaystyle 3.9^{-1}=0.256}$	${displaystyle 2.85^{-1}=0.351}$

The idea of arbitrage betting is to find odds at different bookmakers, where the sum of the inverse of all the outcomes are below 1, meaning that the bookmakers disagree on the chances of the outcomes. This discrepancy can be used to obtain a profit.

For instance if one places a bet on outcome 1 at bookmaker 2 and outcome 2 at bookmaker 1:

${displaystyle 1.43^{-1}+3.9^{-1}=0.956}$

Placing a bet of $100 on the most likely outcome with the lowest odds (outcome 1 with bookmaker 2) and a bet of $36.67 ${displaystyle ($100cdot (1.43/3.9))}$ on outcome 2 at bookmaker 1 would ensure the bettor a profit. When there are more than two possible outcomes the value of the subsequent bets can be calculated with respect to the lowest quoted odds.

In case outcome 1 comes out, one could collect ${displaystyle r_{1}=$100*1.43=$143}$ from bookmaker 2. In case outcome 2 comes out, one could collect ${displaystyle r_{2}=$36.67cdot 3.9=$143}$ from bookmaker 1. One would have invested $136.67, but have collected $143, a profit of $6.33 (4.6%) no matter the outcome of the event.

So for 2 odds ${displaystyle o_{1}}$ and ${displaystyle o_{2}}$ , where ${displaystyle o_{1}^{-1}+o_{2}^{-1}<1}$ . If one wishes to place stake ${displaystyle s_{1}}$ at outcome 1, then one should place ${displaystyle s_{2}=s_{1}cdot o_{1}/o_{2}}$ at outcome 2, to even out the odds, and receive the same return no matter the outcome of the event.

Or in other words, if there are two outcomes, a 1/1 and a 2/1, by covering the 1/1 with $500 and the 2/1 with $333, one is guaranteed to win $1000 at a cost of $833, giving a 20% profit. More often profits exists around the 4% mark or less.

Reducing the risk of human error is vital being that the mathematical formula is sound and only external factors add 'risk'. Numerous online arbitrage calculator tools exist to help bettors get the math right. For example, arbitrage calculators can handle calculations for both book arbitrage ('back/back' or 'lay/lay') and 'back/lay' arbitrage opportunities on an intra-exchange or inter-exchange basis, and are free.

For arbitrages involving three outcomes (e.g. a game which can be won, lost or drawn) having the odds ${displaystyle o_{1}}$ for Outcome 1, ${displaystyle o_{2}}$ for outcome 2 and ${displaystyle o_{3}}$ for outcome 3 with their respective bids being ${displaystyle b_{1}}$ , ${displaystyle b_{2}}$ and ${displaystyle b_{3}}$ and sum of the bids being B.

The amount required to bet on each possibility in order to ensure profit can be calculated by

${displaystyle b_{1}=B/(1+(o_{1}/o_{2})+(o_{1}/o_{3}))}$

${displaystyle b_{2}=B/(1+(o_{2}/o_{1})+(o_{2}/o_{3}))}$

${displaystyle b_{3}=B/(1+(o_{3}/o_{1})+(o_{3}/o_{2}))}$

Back-lay sports[edit]

Betting exchanges such as Smarkets have opened up a new range of arbitrage possibilities since on the exchanges it is possible to lay (i.e. to bet against) as well as to back an outcome. Arbitrage using only the back or lay side might occur on betting exchanges. It is in principle the same as the arbitrage using different bookmakers. Arbitrage using back and lay side is possible if a lay bet on one exchange provides shorter odds than a back bet on another exchange or bookmaker. However, the commission charged by the bookmakers and exchanges must be included into calculations.

Back-lay sports arbitrage is often called 'scalping' or 'trading'. Scalping is not actually arbitrage, but short-term trading. In the context of sports arbitrage betting a scalping trader or scalper looks to make many small profits, which in time can add up. In theory a trader could turn a small investment into large profits by re-investing his earlier profits into future bets so as to generate exponential growth. Scalping relies on liquidity in the markets and that the odds will fluctuate around a mean point. A key advantage to scalping on one exchange is that most exchanges charge commission only on the net winnings in a particular event, thus ensuring that even the smallest favorable difference in the odds will guarantee some profit.

Arbitrage Betting Website

Bonus sports[edit]

Many bookmakers offer first time users a signup bonus in the range $10–200 for depositing an initial amount. They typically demand that this amount is wagered a number of times before the bonus can be withdrawn. Bonus sport arbitraging, also known as matched betting, is a form of sports arbitraging where the bettor hedges or backs their bets as usual, but since they received the bonus, a small loss can be allowed on each wager (2–5%), which comes off their profit. In this way the bookmakers wagering demand can be met and the initial deposit and sign up bonus can be withdrawn with little loss.

The advantage over usual betting arbitrage is that it is a lot easier to find bets with an acceptable loss, instead of an actual profit. Since most bookmakers offer these bonuses this can potentially be exploited to harvest the sign up bonuses.

By signing up to various bookmakers, it is possible to turn these 'free' bets into cash fairly quickly, and either making a small arbitrage, or in the majority of cases, making a small loss on each bet, or trade. However, it is relatively time consuming to find close matched bets or arbitrages, which is where a middleman service is useful. As many bookmakers require a certain turnover of the bonus amount, matching money from different bookmakers against each other enables the player to in effect quickly 'play free' the money of the losing bookmaker and in effect transfer it to the winning bookmaker. By avoiding most of the turnover requirements in this way the player can usually expect a 70-80% return on investment.

As well as spending time physically matching odds from various bet sites to exchanges, the other draw back with bonus bagging and arbitrage trading in this sense is that often the free bets are 'non-stake returned'. This effectively reduces the odds, in decimal format, by 1. Therefore, in order to reduce 'losses' on the free bet, it is necessary to place a bet with high odds, so that the percentage difference of the decrease in odds is minimised.

Is Arbitrage Betting Legal

Shop arbitrage (sharbing)[edit]

Shop arbitrage (also known as sharbing or shop-arbing) is the process of using a betting shop's coupons and a betting exchange to create an arbitrage position. This is made possible because online prices change quickly to close these positions and betting shops are slower to change the prices on their printed coupons.

Risks[edit]

While often claimed to be 'risk-free', this is only true if an arbitrage is successfully completed; in reality, there are several threats to this:

Disappearance of arbitrage: Arbitrages in online sports markets have a median lifetime of around 15 minutes,^[6] after which the difference in odds underpinning them vanishes through betting activity. Without rapid alerting and action, it is possible to fail to make all the 'legs' of the arbitrage before it vanishes, thus transforming it from a risk-free arbitrage into a conventional bet with the usual risks involved. High street bookmakers however, offer their odds days in advance and rarely change them once they have been set. These arbitrages can have a lifetime of several hours.
Hackers: Due to the large number of accounts that have to be created and managed (containing personal details such as email, name, address, ewallet, credit card information and often even a copy of the bettor's ID/passport or driver's license), arbitrage traders are highly susceptible to cyber fraud, such as bank account theft. While making deposits is usually made easy and quick, making withdrawals often requires proof of identity in the form of passport/driver license, copies of which need to be shared with the bookmakers via fax/email or even postal mail, which causes additional identity theft risks. Traders are often attracted to high odds comparison sites that yield high percentage profits per stake (5-30%); this is often used by hackers to lure a high number of arbitrage bettors that then place large sums of money on these arb's, only to lose all of the profit and even entire savings in bank accounts to hackers or untrustworthy websites, which may further use the gathered data to sell personal data to criminals.
Making errors as an arber: In the excitement of the action and due to the high number of bets placed, it is not uncommon to make a mistake (like traders on financial markets). For example, the appropriate stakes may be incorrectly calculated, or be placed on the wrong 'legs' of the arb, locking in a loss, or there may be inadequate funds in one of the accounts to complete the arb. Those errors might temporarily have an important impact. In the long term, the benefit will depend on the odds. For example, one could actually make more money by placing the 'wrong' bet where the outcome happens to be beneficial, though not justified by the arbitrage calculation. However, repetition of this stroke of luck is unlikely, assuming the bookmaker has calculated the odds so they make a profit. Websites and bet placement interfaces differ between bookmakers, so that arbitrage bettors need to be familiar with different web interfaces. In some sports different bookmakers deal with outcomes in different ways (they differ in their handling of - for example - player withdrawal due to injury in tennis, overtime in ice hockey), meaning that both 'legs' can lose. Matching terms for all bookmakers is time-consuming, requires expertise and experience, while still being fairly error-prone.
Detection: There are very few bookmakers who openly tolerate arbing. Many bookmakers may now be using shared security servers in order to pinpoint people suspected of arbitrage betting; they can simply limit stakes to make arbing unprofitable and even close accounts without honoring a bet that was placed. Loss of deposited money into a bookmaker could occur. This usually leads to unprofitable arbing as the most successful bookmakers are so adept at identifying arbitrage bettors. To avoid detection, people sometimes use special arbing VPN and VPS services.
Stake reviewal: Some bookmakers are known to accept only very small stakes by default, while requiring larger stakes to be manually reviewed before being accepted, which basically makes it difficult for an arbitrage better to determine if a leg was completely accepted or not, until it may be too late.
Bet cancellation: If a bettor places bets so as to make an arbitrage and one bookmaker cancels a bet, the bettor could find himself in a bad position because he is actually betting with all the risks implied. The bettor can repeat the bet that has been cancelled so as minimize the risk, but if he cannot get the same odds he had before he may be forced to take a loss. In some cases the situation arises when there are very high potential payouts by the bookmaker, perhaps due to an unintentional error made while quoting odds. Many jurisdictions allow bookmakers to cancel bets in the event of such a 'palpable' ['obvious'] error in the quoted odds. This is often loosely defined as an obvious mistake, but whether a 'palp' in fact has been made is often the sole discretion of the bookmaker.

References[edit]

^'What Is An Arbitrage Bet? - bettingexpert Academy'. www.bettingexpert.com. Retrieved 2020-04-16.
^Cortis, Dominic (2015). Expected Values and variance in bookmaker payouts: A Theoretical Approach towards setting limits on odds. Journal of Prediction Markets. 1. 9.
^'What is Arbing or Arbitrage Betting in Gambling?'. Profit Accumulator. Retrieved 2020-04-16.
^Keynes, Milton. 'Reward without Risk? An Introduction to Arbitrage Betting and the Asian Handicap'. TBR. Retrieved 19 March 2014.
^ ^a^bSchwartz, Avery Joseph (4 April 2016). 'Arbitrage in the European Soccer Betting Market'(PDF). Yale University.
^'How quickly is temporary market inefficiency removed?' Ben R. Marshall The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance49 (2009) 917–930

Arbitrage Friendly Betting Sites

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